repak shawahb

repak shawahb
people who speak in metaphors can shampoo my crotch			^

	rsw@jfet.org 200811 ( 1) 200809 ( 1) 200808 ( 1) 200806 ( 2) 200805 ( 2) 200804 ( 2) 200803 ( 5) 200802 ( 4) 200801 ( 1) 200712 ( 5) 200711 ( 3) 200709 ( 1) 200706 ( 1) 200704 ( 4) 200703 ( 1) 200702 ( 3) 200701 ( 5) 200612 ( 3) 200610 ( 2) 200609 ( 2) 200608 ( 3) 200607 (10) 200606 (10) 200605 ( 9) 200604 ( 7) 200603 ( 9) 200602 (11) 200601 (26) 200512 (20) 200511 (22) 200510 (19) 200509 (13) 200508 ( 2) 200507 ( 3) 200506 ( 7) 200505 (26) 200504 ( 9) 200503 (15) 200502 (20) 200501 (28) 200412 (16) 200411 ( 5) 200410 (18) 200409 ( 7) all blogroll Amrys Anna Ariel Brittany Christine Cyrus Gautham Hippo Issel Jack Jeff Jim Johnston Kristin Mar May Mich Michelle Rodin Russ Sam Stephanie Wax0r Woz	Tue, 27 Nov 2007 week 12 power rankings combined offense defense NWE 100.000 NWE 100.000 PIT 100.000 GNB 91.348 DAL 88.412 TAM 91.899 DAL 87.502 CLE 81.795 IND 88.280 IND 84.628 IND 81.040 SEA 83.732 PIT 73.969 GNB 78.505 NWE 83.169 JAC 73.190 CIN 75.524 GNB 80.832 TAM 63.483 SDG 72.373 JAC 77.369 SEA 61.943 PIT 72.216 KAN 74.473 NYG 61.109 DET 71.292 PHI 72.405 CLE 59.826 ARI 70.420 DAL 69.258 SDG 56.212 NYG 70.343 SDG 69.141 DET 53.405 NOR 69.105 TEN 67.777 TEN 51.866 JAC 68.731 MIN 66.864 PHI 45.569 HOU 68.715 WAS 64.877 MIN 44.916 MIN 67.397 NYG 62.132 WAS 44.288 SEA 67.305 BAL 61.330 CHI 42.684 PHI 66.754 BUF 61.091 NOR 42.629 DEN 65.643 OAK 59.663 BUF 42.103 CHI 64.351 CAR 58.424 HOU 41.820 WAS 62.505 CHI 58.162 DEN 41.362 TAM 62.311 ATL 57.281 ARI 41.339 TEN 60.242 SFO 53.944 CIN 35.116 OAK 58.616 NOR 53.142 KAN 32.132 NYJ 55.344 MIA 51.429 CAR 30.489 MIA 55.247 HOU 50.821 BAL 29.212 BAL 53.785 DET 49.637 ATL 20.853 CAR 52.832 NYJ 49.264 OAK 19.455 STL 51.484 ARI 48.391 SFO 18.359 BUF 51.433 STL 45.438 NYJ 14.322 KAN 50.767 CIN 42.556 STL 11.407 ATL 48.921 DEN 41.844 MIA 0.000 SFO 47.145 CLE 36.398 passing offense passing defense rushing offense rushing defense NWE 100.000 PIT 100.000 MIN 100.000 MIN 100.000 GNB 96.487 IND 93.316 JAC 85.481 PIT 96.717 CIN 91.415 MIA 84.576 PIT 85.406 BAL 95.448 NOR 90.787 OAK 75.990 TEN 81.914 DAL 93.793 DAL 90.072 TAM 73.950 OAK 80.568 NWE 87.075 HOU 88.177 NWE 69.465 DEN 78.990 TEN 81.780 DET 86.451 TEN 66.651 WAS 78.721 PHI 80.144 IND 86.087 KAN 65.019 IND 78.708 NYG 78.202 SEA 85.777 DEN 63.093 NYG 78.328 NOR 75.435 CLE 85.650 ATL 62.469 DAL 78.313 WAS 74.430 ARI 85.513 NYG 62.175 NWE 78.269 GNB 73.229 PHI 82.731 WAS 60.301 PHI 76.086 JAC 72.006 DEN 81.538 CAR 58.975 TAM 74.879 IND 68.346 CHI 76.256 STL 58.883 CAR 73.957 SEA 68.256 WAS 76.106 SEA 57.932 MIA 71.569 KAN 62.558 NYG 74.211 BAL 57.409 CLE 71.393 TAM 61.679 SDG 73.406 NYJ 55.063 ARI 69.885 STL 59.905 STL 72.539 HOU 54.241 SDG 68.897 SDG 59.488 TAM 72.128 DAL 53.992 BUF 67.623 ARI 58.839 KAN 71.935 ARI 52.965 NYJ 66.070 DET 57.621 ATL 71.133 GNB 52.897 BAL 65.125 CAR 55.492 JAC 71.051 PHI 52.479 ATL 64.762 BUF 51.748 PIT 70.923 SDG 50.298 SEA 64.094 HOU 51.553 BAL 70.810 CHI 49.698 STL 62.251 CIN 48.104 NYJ 68.722 SFO 48.823 CIN 62.240 ATL 48.050 MIA 67.803 CIN 36.637 SFO 61.845 SFO 47.780 CAR 67.090 JAC 35.728 HOU 61.282 CHI 44.510 TEN 66.896 NOR 34.315 DET 61.212 CLE 38.427 OAK 63.995 BUF 31.657 NOR 59.513 MIA 23.702 BUF 63.564 CLE 24.313 CHI 59.096 DEN 23.594 MIN 61.092 DET 22.418 KAN 57.651 NYJ 20.708 SFO 57.466 MIN 16.898 GNB 57.358 OAK 16.649 ...or you can have the updated data. [ permalink \| 0 comments (add one you lazy bastard!) ] Mon, 19 Nov 2007 week 11 power rankings A couple changes this week: I included individual yards for/against data for each team, and for the off/def rankings (including yardages) I scaled to 100 but did not shift; this lets us say, e.g., "Dallas has been 88% as effective as New England on offense this year." combined offense defense NWE 100.000 NWE 100.000 PIT 100.000 GNB 89.948 DAL 88.125 TAM 98.084 DAL 87.434 CLE 81.142 NWE 96.117 IND 84.182 IND 79.909 IND 94.656 PIT 72.766 GNB 76.340 SEA 92.243 JAC 70.157 PIT 75.912 GNB 91.090 NYG 67.255 CIN 73.013 JAC 82.399 TAM 59.928 NYG 70.745 PHI 81.381 TEN 58.593 SDG 70.119 KAN 80.971 DET 58.409 DET 70.034 TEN 79.308 SEA 57.878 HOU 69.357 NYG 76.497 CLE 55.563 ARI 68.045 BUF 73.135 SDG 51.351 NOR 66.693 SDG 72.200 PHI 48.928 SEA 66.328 BAL 71.062 WAS 48.751 JAC 65.021 MIN 70.304 ARI 46.286 PHI 64.132 WAS 70.139 HOU 46.240 WAS 63.292 DAL 68.006 BUF 46.227 TEN 62.536 CHI 67.927 DEN 45.535 MIN 62.337 CAR 67.404 MIN 38.415 DEN 61.969 ATL 64.935 CHI 37.000 TAM 61.747 OAK 63.164 KAN 35.755 CHI 60.339 SFO 62.156 NOR 35.554 MIA 58.782 ARI 60.005 CAR 35.457 NYJ 57.953 DET 57.693 BAL 32.697 OAK 57.090 NYJ 56.483 CIN 27.393 CAR 54.860 HOU 55.949 ATL 22.319 BAL 53.537 NOR 51.081 NYJ 15.555 BUF 50.768 DEN 50.339 OAK 12.721 STL 49.504 STL 48.884 STL 12.007 KAN 49.457 MIA 48.326 SFO 11.159 ATL 48.534 CIN 39.694 MIA 0.000 SFO 40.331 CLE 36.990 passing offense passing defense rushing offense rushing defense NWE 100.000 PIT 100.000 MIN 100.000 MIN 100.000 GNB 96.241 IND 94.924 PIT 86.426 BAL 96.494 DAL 93.756 MIA 83.989 JAC 84.965 PIT 93.830 NOR 92.684 TAM 83.613 TEN 83.786 DAL 92.796 CIN 92.543 NWE 80.982 NWE 80.100 TEN 90.362 HOU 90.274 OAK 74.020 NYG 78.808 NWE 84.442 DET 89.256 TEN 72.574 OAK 77.840 NYG 81.602 SEA 88.335 ATL 65.589 IND 77.661 GNB 79.707 IND 87.520 SFO 64.217 PHI 77.610 WAS 76.569 CLE 87.004 KAN 63.288 WAS 77.385 PHI 76.410 ARI 81.640 CAR 62.229 DEN 77.383 JAC 73.582 DEN 81.265 DEN 61.431 CAR 76.143 IND 71.732 PHI 80.910 BAL 60.435 DAL 74.956 NOR 71.138 CHI 78.497 PHI 60.345 TAM 74.224 SEA 70.164 TAM 76.287 STL 59.110 MIA 73.060 KAN 68.557 STL 75.044 NYG 58.184 ARI 69.101 TAM 64.435 NYG 74.965 ARI 56.332 SDG 68.567 ARI 64.271 WAS 74.907 HOU 56.049 CLE 67.940 STL 59.606 KAN 74.813 SEA 54.899 BUF 66.412 DET 59.124 ATL 73.792 CHI 54.203 NYJ 66.374 CAR 58.095 PIT 73.721 WAS 52.424 BAL 65.870 HOU 57.049 BAL 73.254 NYJ 51.089 SEA 63.124 SDG 55.997 SDG 73.207 GNB 50.571 ATL 62.646 BUF 54.536 NYJ 71.848 DAL 47.193 HOU 60.938 ATL 50.168 MIA 70.683 SDG 45.577 STL 60.199 SFO 47.750 JAC 69.687 CIN 36.339 SFO 58.075 CHI 47.443 CAR 69.304 BUF 33.569 CIN 57.624 CIN 44.197 TEN 66.335 JAC 32.741 DET 57.485 CLE 36.528 OAK 65.296 NOR 27.343 NOR 56.993 NYJ 25.887 BUF 63.750 DET 24.614 CHI 56.371 DEN 24.843 MIN 63.215 CLE 20.395 GNB 55.273 OAK 21.659 SFO 55.519 MIN 11.868 KAN 52.643 MIA 20.537 Updated code for those following along at home. [ permalink \| 0 comments (add one you lazy bastard!) ] Wed, 14 Nov 2007 moooooooore powerrrrrrrrrr ...rankings. I was bored and decided to write some code to produce NFL power rankings. Perhaps one of my perenially disappointed faithful readers might care to peruse. (Gautham actually suggested splitting the offensive and defensive power rankings; previously I'd only looked at overall power rankings, which I present below.) First, a little explanation: these are split offensive and defensive power rankings; in other words, normalized rankings by points for and points against considering the record of the opposition as given by the same ranking. My assumption here is that my rankings should be zero-sum when offense and defense are combined. That is, every (adjusted) point counted towards an offense is counted precisely the same against the opposing defense. The rankings are determined as follows: Rank offenses and defenses by adding up points for and points against. Normalize to a 0-100 scale, with 100 being most points for and least points against. Given the above rankings, normalize the points scored: `pnorm = pscore * (1 - (offensive_rating - opposing_defensive_rating))`. Note that this is zero-sum, since the defensive rating for the team on defense is used against the offensive rating of the team on offense. Repeat the above, but this time use the rankings returned in the last step. Continue iterating until the algorithm converges on a set of rankings. These are now both perfectly self-consistent (that is, using the rankings to normalize the scores yields exactly the same rankings) and zero-sum (all points counted for a defense are also counted against an offense). Note that this is very much a discrete feedback system, and as such is subject to instability. To ameliorate this problem, we add a "gain" term as such: `pnorm = pscore * (1 - gain(offensive_rating - opposing_defensive_rating))`, where `gain < 1`. While monitoring the state variables, we experiment with gain until we get close to the largest value that yields a stable system, in this case 1/4. Yes, this is hacky. Bite me, Hippo. Finally, using approximately the same algorithm (details if you insist), I do the same thing for total performance, taking into account win/loss, point differential, defensive performance, and home field advantage. So now we have a mess of numbers. What are they? Well, in one sentence, they are normalized offensive and defensive ratings adjusted for relative strength of schedule. How, relative? Well, we look at the difference between the opposing defense and our offense (or vice-versa), not our defense versus the league average or some such. Think of it this way: if the worst team in the league had to play a bunch of mediocre teams, those would be hard-fought wins; conversely, the best team in the league should have little trouble with those same teams. Relative strength of schedule takes this into account. Here are the numbers: combined offense defense NWE 100.000 NWE 100.000 PIT 100.000 GNB 88.877 DAL 83.321 SEA 89.290 DAL 85.341 IND 72.842 TAM 85.638 IND 83.189 CLE 67.917 NWE 84.650 PIT 80.843 PIT 64.065 GNB 83.451 JAC 66.579 GNB 58.556 IND 81.508 TEN 66.043 DET 54.766 TEN 76.748 DET 64.926 CIN 54.511 BUF 70.769 NYG 63.272 NYG 53.387 JAC 66.878 SDG 56.904 SDG 51.525 KAN 59.164 TAM 53.994 HOU 49.478 BAL 56.930 SEA 53.481 NOR 48.993 PHI 56.024 WAS 52.787 ARI 41.471 SDG 53.106 CLE 51.385 PHI 40.369 CAR 51.544 BUF 50.391 JAC 38.916 CHI 51.263 PHI 43.508 SEA 37.553 MIN 49.928 CHI 41.806 TEN 36.275 NYG 49.785 HOU 40.583 WAS 34.992 ATL 49.339 ARI 40.051 MIA 34.039 WAS 49.119 DEN 39.732 MIN 32.003 DAL 45.858 NOR 39.701 CHI 29.441 OAK 43.484 KAN 38.975 TAM 29.306 ARI 36.620 CAR 38.408 DEN 28.936 SFO 30.923 BAL 36.894 NYJ 26.355 DET 23.899 MIN 32.504 OAK 23.123 NYJ 21.136 CIN 31.475 CAR 21.660 NOR 19.135 ATL 26.070 BUF 17.196 HOU 18.749 OAK 15.436 KAN 15.675 DEN 15.649 SFO 13.263 ATL 15.238 MIA 7.479 NYJ 6.447 BAL 14.313 STL 6.008 STL 3.783 STL 14.185 CIN 5.766 MIA 0.000 SFO 0.000 CLE 0.000 Sucks for Cleveland that they have a terrible defense, since their offense pretty much rocks... I'll keep these updated weekly until the end of the season. Edit:* here's the code if you want to play with it yourself. [ permalink \| 0 comments (add one you lazy bastard!) ]